Thursday 19 April 2007

Re-roll damage

John has done a calculation which gives a correct multiplier for the common FT phenonomenon of the reroll on a 6. The net effect of potentially infinite rerolls on a six is to change the divisor for average damage from 6 to 5. The formula is x/6 + x/6*6 + x/6*6*6 and so on.

Pretty much there's no useful difference between the sum of the probabilities of one 6, two 6s, three 6s and four 6s and the sum of the entire infinity of possible continuous rolls of 6, at just about .2, as opposed to .166666666666666 recurring for a single roll of a six.

This changes the numbers for my comparison of beams and grasers, but because it has equal effects on the numbers, it doesn't change the actual analysis.

It does, however, change my assessment of K-guns versus beams, which looked pretty sick when I didn't take re-roll damage into account. Watch this space for more on K-guns, guaranteed to make you buy a S''''''wat fleet immediately.

No comments: